New Weather System May Develop Over Bay of Bengal Around September 20-22

New Weather System May Develop Over Bay of Bengal Around September 20-22

A new weather system may develop over the Bay of Bengal around September 20-22, according to indications from global weather models. However, it is too early to determine whether the system will intensify into a cyclone or where it may move.

Weather expert Professor Surendranath Pashupalak said models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) are showing signals of a developing system over the Bay of Bengal.

In an assessment dated September 15, Pashupalak said both models indicate a broadly similar pattern for the formation and possible organisation of the system. However, he noted that significant uncertainty remains regarding its intensity, movement and potential landfall.

The system could develop from a cyclonic circulation into a low-pressure area and later a depression. Its intensification into a cyclone cannot be ruled out at this stage.

If the system strengthens, coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal may need close monitoring between September 23 and 27. However, no specific landfall location can be identified yet.

Pashupalak said there is currently no need for panic, as the system has not formed and forecasts made seven to 10 days in advance can change considerably with subsequent model updates.

At present, the possibility of heavy rainfall over Odisha appears to be a more reliable indication than the likelihood of damaging cyclone-force winds. He advised the public and farmers to remain alert but avoid taking major decisions based solely on individual weather model maps circulating on social media. The next three to five days of model updates will be important in determining whether the system develops and how consistently it is projected by different models.